East African Community’s Ability to Equip Military Force Questioned

Analysts are questioning the East African Community’s capacity to equip a multinational military force formed to battle insurgencies in the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo.

Last week, the seven nations that make up the regional body announced the force’s mission would be to ”end decades of bloodshed,” Reuters reported.

The challenges of getting the force on the ground are enormous, said Onesphore Sematumba, an analyst on the DRC and Great Lakes region at the International Crisis Group. He questioned the readiness of EAC countries to provide troops and logistics for the force and deploy it.

“Unfortunately, this regional force does not yet exist. It must first be mounted and made operational,” he told VOA.

Over 120 rebel groups and militias still operate in the DRC’s eastern provinces nearly two decades after the official end of the country’s civil wars. The effort to restore peace has, since 2010, involved the United Nations’ largest peacekeeping force, with billions of dollars invested in the operation.

Some of the groups in the eastern DRC have operated there for two decades or more. That includes cross-border groups considered hostile to their countries of origin, such as the Ugandan Allied Democratic Forces (ADF), which operates in DRC’s North Kivu and Ituri provinces. According to the United Nations, the ADF killed over 1,200 people in 2021 alone, an increase of nearly 50% from the previous year.

Other cross-border groups are the Forces Démocratiques de Libération du Rwanda (Democratic Forces for the Liberation of Rwanda), or FLDR, in North Kivu and the RED-Tabara of Burundi in South Kivu.

Naureen Chowdhury Fink, executive director of the New York-based Soufan Center, said it was crucial to “reflect on lessons learned from other regions” where multiple groups are active. “It can get complicated very quickly,” she told VOA.

Fink added that it was important for groups such as the EAC military force “to ensure their operations are based on the rule of law, as human rights violations can further exacerbate tensions with the communities they are intending to serve.”

“Also importantly,” she said, “there needs to be a clearly defined operational strategy and objective so that it does not end up targeting a wide and undefined group of actors in the name of countering terrorism.”

EAC partners include Burundi, Kenya, Rwanda, South Sudan, Tanzania, Uganda and, finally, the DRC, which became the community’s newest member earlier this month.

“Even by bringing together all the armies of the region, it will be difficult to militarily defeat more than 120 armed groups scattered over a very large area in a region of forests and mountains,” Sematumba said.

“We are dealing with extremely mobile groups that have a very good knowledge of the field and have good networks of information within the populations,” he told VOA. “Their asymmetrical warfare strategy requires a similar type of intelligence and special forces response from a potential regional force. States need patience.”

Source: Voice of America

Investor Interest in Africa at All-Time High, But Risks Remain

The Private Equity & Venture Capital Association (AVCA) says Africa attracted a record $7.4 billion in private capital in 2021, more than double the year before. But while the continent provides ample possibilities for investors, it also presents challenges, from instability to climate change. At this year’s AVCA conference in Senegal, investors discussed some of the trends.

More than 500 people from some 50 countries filtered in and out of conference rooms at Dakar’s Radisson Hotel Tuesday for Day 2 of AVCA’s annual gathering.

Africa offers a rich environment for local and international investors, attendees say, as it has a growing youth population and consumer market.

Alexia Alexandropoulou is a research manager at AVCA. She said investor interest in the continent has been largely driven by the attraction of financial technology companies. A number of sizable infrastructure deals also contributed to investment growth.

“And these infrastructure investments were focused on renewable energy, transportation and communication services. And they support African governments to fill the infrastructure gap on the continent. We expect to see more of these trends continue in the years to come,” she noted.

Some African governments such as Senegal’s have successfully attracted international investment in recent years. In 2019, it became the second African country to pass a “start-up act,” which eases regulations and provides tax breaks to innovative new businesses.

Venture capital activity here comprised 80 percent of total reported deals in 2021, up from 6 percent between 2016 and 2020, according to AVCA. But investing in African companies also comes with challenges, investors say, including currency volatility, small national economies, limited access to finance and banking services and political unrest.

“If you have a long-term view, and if you’re well diversified, you can obviously overcome those issues,” expressed Walid Cherif, the managing director of BluePeak Private Capital, adding “from [the] outside you read the news, or you think it’s scary, it’s difficult. But at the end of the day, there’s so many opportunities on the ground, so many great businesses. As long as you put the tools in them and give them a lot of assistance and support, you can definitely help them become strong businesses.”

Climate change is another major hindrance. Sub-Saharan Africa is expected to suffer disproportionately from extreme weather events such as floods and drought. This is disruptive to businesses, particularly those in the agricultural sector.

Some investors have begun setting climate goals.

Clarisa De Franco is the managing director of British International Investment. Last year, her company set a goal of having 30 percent of their investments dedicated toward addressing climate change.

“They will have to have the specific mandate of addressing climate from a resilience, adaptation or mitigation point of view. How do we achieve that from a new commitment point of view, but also from a portfolio point of view, is something that we need to explore a bit more,” De Franco pointed out.

Potential investments might include the renewable energy and plantation sectors, she said.

The AVCA conference continues in Dakar through Friday.

Source: Voice of America

Chinese Lending to Africa Falls During First Year of Pandemic

Chinese loans to African governments plunged by more than three-quarters in the first year of the pandemic compared to the year before, researchers have found, with new loan commitments in 2020 at their lowest level in 16 years.

That could be due to Chinese lenders taking more precautions at the outset of the pandemic and focusing on domestic priorities, as well as African countries being less willing to borrow, the study by Boston University’s Global Development Policy Center found.

Chinese lending in 2020 fell to $1.9 billion, the study released this week showed, with only 11 new loan commitments recorded. That’s compared to the 32 loans signed in 2019 worth some $8.2 billion.

“As the pandemic continues to wreak havoc on livelihoods within China and the debt position of some African countries, shifts in financing types and sources are expected for future Chinese financing to Africa,” the report said.

China is sub-Saharan Africa’s biggest single creditor and, in the two decades since 2000, has signed 1,188 loans worth $160 billion with 49 African governments, state-owned enterprises and regional organizations.

Despite the downturn, Oyintarelado Moses, one of the study’s authors, told VOA that Chinese loans to Africa would likely pick up in the post-pandemic period “as other sources of financing beyond lending from traditional borrowers increase.”

The biggest borrowers have been Angola, Ethiopia and Zambia. The latter became the first pandemic-era default in 2020, with debt of almost $32 billion. According to the Reuters news agency, $5.78 billion of that debt was held by China and Chinese entities. China committed last week to joining Zambia’s creditor committee, a move welcomed by the International Monetary Fund.

China has long been accused of “debt-trap diplomacy” in which its massive loans to developing countries are said to leave them dependent on their creditor for support. Beijing strongly refutes these accusations, saying the West simply resents China’s close ties with Africa because of its Belt and Road Initiative — which is China leader Xi Jinping’s global infrastructure development plan.

A January op-ed in China’s state media, the Global Times, criticized reports in Western media that Beijing was slowing lending to countries on the continent, saying, “Whether China accelerates or slows its lending to Africa, the West is ready to criticize China with their well-worn ‘debt trap’ story.

“In fact,” the op-ed continued, “not one developing country has fallen into the so-called debt trap due to Chinese loans.”

On his visit to several African states last year, U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said countries should not be left with a “tremendous debt that they cannot repay.”

Source: Voice of America