Day: May 9, 2022

KAMPALA, UGANDA — Public fetes celebrating the son of Uganda’s leader are raising concern he is aiming for the presidency after years of apparently being groomed to succeed his father, President Yoweri Museveni, who has held power since 1986.

Three events marking Lt. Gen. Muhoozi Kainerugaba’s 48th birthday have been held in recent days in the capital, Kampala, and his supporters in other parts of this East African country have staged lively rallies they said were in tribute to their future president.

The most recent event, Saturday’s thanksgiving ceremony, was attended by hundreds, including top government officials and military officers.

Kainerugaba, who commands Uganda’s infantry forces, has been increasingly assertive in Twitter posts in which he mentions his wish to rule Uganda. He spoke of increasing the sports budget in favor of young people when he “wins power in this country.” And he says he will announce his political program soon.

“The fact that all those who used to abuse me on a daily basis are now being forced to swallow their words by the people is great,” he said on May 2, referring to recent rallies where throngs of people wore T-shirts bearing his image.

Kainerugaba’s supporters say he offers Uganda the opportunity of a peaceful transfer of power in a country that has not had one since independence from British colonial rule in 1962. But opposition leaders, critics and others eager for change say his rise is leading the East African country toward hereditary rule.

Kainerugaba’s birthday celebrations should be seen as a formal introduction of “the crown prince and heir to the Ugandan throne,” critic Muniini K. Mulera wrote in a column in the local Daily Monitor newspaper. Museveni “has entered his last lap of a long walk towards the realization of a fifty-year-old dream to create dynastic rule,” he wrote.

Kainerugaba also faces legal scrutiny. Because Ugandan law prohibits a serving military officer from engaging in partisan affairs, some say Kainerugaba has already crossed the line. They point out that other army officers who discussed politics were humiliated.

A Ugandan attorney last week filed a petition with the Constitutional Court seeking a declaration that Kainerugaba’s political activities are unlawful. That petition also seeks to have Kainerugaba prosecuted for alleged treason, charging that his activities are destabilizing.

Kainerugaba joined the army in the late 1990s, and his rise to the top of the armed forces has been controversial, with critics dubbing it the “Muhoozi Project” to prepare him for the presidency.

Museveni and Kainerugaba himself have denied the existence of such a scheme, but it appears a transition is now underway as Museveni, 77, serves what could be his last term without a recognizable successor within his government.

Museveni has not said when he would retire. He has no rivals within the ruling National Resistance Movement party, the reason many believe the military will have a say in choosing his successor.

Most of the heroes of the jungle war that ended years-long civil strife and launched Museveni’s presidency have since died or been retired from the army, putting authority in the hands of young military officers who see Kainerugaba as their leader.

Kainerugaba, the pillar of his father’s personal security apparatus, is now the de facto head of the military, with his allies strategically deployed in command positions across the security services, according to observers.

Kainerugaba’s associates describe him as a dedicated military officer who often eschews ostentatious displays of power and wealth. He attended military schools in the U.S. and Britain before taking charge of a presidential guard unit that has since been expanded into an elite group of special forces.

A taciturn man, Kainerugaba lacks the public charisma and folksy style of Museveni, who has kept power in part by striking deals with his political rivals and even convincing some to serve in his government.

Museveni, a U.S. ally on regional security, is often credited with restoring Uganda to relative peace and security. But in recent years he has faced growing criticism over rights abuses against opposition supporters.

Bobi Wine, the popular singer who challenged Museveni in elections last year, accuses Kainerugaba’s security agents of torture. Wine, whose real name is Kyagulanyi Ssentamu, has repeatedly urged the U.S. to cut support for Uganda’s military.

Some analysts say that Museveni is unlikely to retire at all but could use his remaining years to pave the way for Kainerugaba to succeed him.

Uganda’s next presidential elections are due in 2026.

Although a Kainerugaba presidency is not inevitable, he could build “a critical mass of support” among soldiers and businesspeople to eventually take power, said Nicholas Sengoba, a political analyst based in Kampala. Kainerugaba’s public events, he said, are aimed at “testing the waters” as Museveni gauges public support for family rule.

“The son helps the father to consolidate,” he said. “The father helps the son now because he’s in charge.”

Source: Voice of America

The world is creeping closer to the warming threshold international agreements are trying to prevent, with a nearly 50-50 chance that Earth will temporarily hit that temperature mark within the next five years, teams of meteorologists across the globe predicted.

With human-made climate change continuing, there’s a 48% chance that the globe will reach a yearly average of 1.5 degrees Celsius (2.7 degrees Fahrenheit) above pre-industrial levels of the late 1800s at least once between now and 2026, a bright red signal in climate change negotiations and science, a team of 11 different forecast centers predicted for the World Meteorological Organization late Monday.

The odds are inching up along with the thermometer. Last year, the same forecasters put the odds at closer to 40%, and a decade ago it was only 10%.

The team, coordinated by the United Kingdom’s Meteorological Office, in their five-year general outlook said there is a 93% chance that the world will set a record for the hottest year by the end of 2026. They also said there’s a 93% chance that the five years from 2022 to 2026 will be the hottest on record. Forecasters also predict the devastating fire-prone megadrought in the U.S. Southwest will keep going.

“We’re going to see continued warming in line with what is expected with climate change,” said UK Met Office senior scientist Leon Hermanson, who coordinated the report.

These forecasts are big picture global and regional climate predictions on a yearly and seasonal time scale based on long-term averages and state of the art computer simulations. They are different from increasingly accurate weather forecasts that predict how hot or wet a certain day will be in specific places.

But even if the world hits that mark of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial times — the globe has already warmed about 1.1 degrees (2 degrees Fahrenheit) since the late 1800s — that’s not quite the same as the global threshold first set by international negotiators in the 2015 Paris agreement. In 2018, a major United Nations science report predicted dramatic and dangerous effects on people and the world if warming exceeds 1.5 degrees.

The global 1.5 degree threshold is about the world being that warm not for one year, but over a 20- or 30-year time period, several scientists said. This is not what the report predicts. Meteorologists can only tell if Earth hits that average mark years, maybe a decade or two, after it is actually reached because it is a long-term average, Hermanson said.

“This is a warning of what will be just average in a few years,” said Cornell University climate scientist Natalie Mahowald, who wasn’t part of the forecast teams.

The prediction makes sense given how warm the world already is and an additional tenth of a degree Celsius (nearly two-tenths of a degree Fahrenheit) is expected because of human-caused climate change in the next five years, said climate scientist Zeke Hausfather of the tech company Stripe and Berkeley Earth, who wasn’t part of the forecast teams. Add to that the likelihood of a strong El Niño — the natural periodic warming of parts of the Pacific that alter world weather — which could toss another couple of tenths of a degree on top temporarily, and the world gets to 1.5 degrees.

The world is in the second straight year of a La Niña, the opposite of El Niño, which has a slight global cooling effect but isn’t enough to counter the overall warming of heat-trapping gases spewed by the burning of coal, oil and natural gas, scientists said. The five-year forecast says that La Niña is likely to end late this year or in 2023.

The greenhouse effect from fossil fuels is like putting global temperatures on a rising escalator. El Niño, La Niña and a handful of other natural weather variations are like taking steps up or down on that escalator, scientists said.

On a regional scale, the Arctic will still be warming during the winter at a rate three times more than the globe on average. While the American Southwest and southwestern Europe are likely to be drier than normal the next five years, wetter than normal conditions are expected for Africa’s often arid Sahel region, northern Europe, northeastern Brazil and Australia, the report predicted.

The global team has been making these predictions informally for a decade and formally for about five years, with greater than 90% accuracy, Hermanson said.

NASA top climate scientist Gavin Schmidt said the figures in this report are “a little warmer” than what NASA and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration use. He also had doubts about skill level on long-term regional predictions.

“Regardless of what is predicted here, we are very likely to exceed 1.5 degrees C in the next decade or so, but it doesn’t necessarily mean that we are committed to this in the long term — or that working to reduce further change is not worthwhile,” Schmidt said in an email.

Source: Voice of America

YAOUNDE, CAMEROON — Villagers along Cameroon’s northern border with Chad and Nigeria have been holding daily protests in front of government offices demanding that the military intervene and deploy troops in areas where attacks by Boko Haram have increased. Protesters say in the past three weeks alone, at least 35 villagers were killed after an alleged attack by the Islamist militant group

Village leaders blame Islamist fighters with the terrorist group Boko Haram for killing at least 35 people in the past three weeks and stealing livestock and food. They raised money for villagers to travel to the regional capital, Maroua to seek help from authorities.

Pastor Joseph Bayoha of the Evangelical Church of Cameroon in Tourou, a village on the border with Nigeria, said villagers came to tell the governor that a day hardly goes by without reports of Boko Haram fighters abusing or killing civilians and stealing their food and cattle.

Bayoha said villagers in Cameroon’s north want the government to immediately deploy troops to protect them and their property and bring back peace, adding they feel abandoned by Cameroon’s military and government to face Boko Haram alone.

Village leaders said Boko Haram infiltrated the northern towns of Kolofata and Amchide and the villages of Tourou, Gambarou and Kumshe.

Midjiyawa Bakari, Governor of Cameroon’s Far North region, told state broadcaster Cameroon Radio Television villagers have not been abandoned by the military as they claim.

He said Cameroon President Paul Biya considers the pleas for more troop deployments legitimate, and should be ready to collaborate with troops that are already on their way to reinforce the military’s presence along the border.

Bakari added that Biya ordered financial and material assistance to village militias that collaborate with troops in fighting the terrorist group Boko Haram. He did not give details on the assistance or how much money the militias would receive.

Bakari said many young people who defected from Boko Haram after the death of its leader, Abubakar Shekau, last year may be rejoining the group for lack of jobs.

He pleaded with them to be patient and said the government intends to provide subsidies to militants who surrender so they could do farming instead.

Cameroon’s military on Saturday dismissed local media reports claiming troops meant for the Far North were sent instead to fight rebels in the western regions.

The military said troops were on standby to protect civilians wherever and whenever the need arises.

Source: Voice of America

ABUJA, NIGERIA — Floyd Mayweather arrived in Nigeria’s capital Sunday evening and met with organizers of this week’s exhibition match in Dubai as well as boxing fans and journalists.

He held a news conference alongside his opponent in his upcoming match, boxer Don Moore.

Mayweather said the visit to Nigeria was part of plans to promote the sport of boxing in Africa.

“It’s all about giving back. We’re working on Mayweather boxing gyms in Nigeria. We want to also build boxing camps for the young youths and children coming up. We’re going to continue to work together and hopefully someday we can find the next Floyd Mayweather from Nigeria,” he said.

Boxing in Nigeria has long been overshadowed by the rising popularity of sports like football. Public boxing gyms are underfunded and poorly equipped.

Nigeria’s boxing champion, Olanrewaju Durodola, says authorities need to step in and that Mayweather’s visit could spur a positive change in Africa.

“The problem in Africa is that we don’t have good promoters here. We have a lot of talented boxers. If he comes to Nigeria and has a big team and sets up all the things that we need, I think the Nigerian boxing will be very great,” he said.

Mayweather’s match Saturday will take place at Dubai’s Burj Al Arab hotel. It will be his first time back in the ring since retiring in August 2017.

Mayweather, who won 50 out of 50 matches during his career, has also visited South Africa, Morocco, and Egypt.

Source: Voice of America