FOOD SECURITY SNAPSHOT
- Flooding, low application of fertilizers and conflicts affected cereal production in 2022
- Cereal import requirements forecast above average in 2021/22 marketing year
- Despite recent declines, prices of coarse grains remain significantly higher year on year
- Unprecedented 2.1 million people estimated to face acute food insecurity in 2022
- Acute food insecurity expected to increase due to unprecedented flooding
Flooding, low application of fertilizers and conflicts affected cereal production in 2022
Harvesting of the 2022 coarse grains and rice crops is underway and it is expected to conclude by December. A timely onset of seasonal rains in the Sudanian zone in April enhanced planting activities of early‑planted crops. A subsequent erratic distribution of rains, including localized dry spells in southern areas in May and June, and torrential rains across the country between July and September, adversely affected crop development in localized areas, particularly in southwestern Mayo-Kebbi Ouest and Logone Occidental regions and southeastern Sila Region. Although the abundant rains mitigated early rainfall deficits and supported crop development across most of the country, they also resulted in unprecedented flooding that, as of mid‑September, led to the destruction of nearly 45 000 hectares of crops, the disruption of agricultural livelihoods and losses of productive assets. Reports from the country indicate that more than 500 hectares of crops were severely affected by grasshoppers and Fall Armyworm infestations in early August in the southwestern Mayo Kebbi East Region. In addition, persisting armed conflicts and intensified farmer‑pastoralist clashes, mostly concentrated in the Lake and Tibesti regions, have hampered agricultural activities and restricted farmers’ access to the fields, limiting the extent of planted area with cereal crops and yields expectations.
Despite earlier favourable expectations based on abundant rainfall amounts, 2022 cereal production, mostly sorghum and millet, is preliminarily forecast at a slightly below‑average level of 2.7 million tonnes, mainly due to the adverse impact on yields of floods and the low application of fertilizers, and a reduction of the planted area instigated by poor security conditions.
Cereal import requirements forecast above average in 2021/22 marketing year
Cereal import requirements in the 2021/22 marketing year (November/October), mainly rice, are forecast at about 175 000 tonnes, 25 percent higher on a yearly basis and 35 percent above the five‑year average. The increased import needs reflect the below‑average cereal production in 2021, with outputs of rice and maize estimated up to 15 percent below the average due to unfavourable weather conditions and conflicts.
Despite recent declines, prices of coarse grains remain significantly higher year on year
Prices of coarse grains levelled off or decreased in July 2021??? in most markets across the country, following steady increases during the first six months of 2022. The price declines reflect the commercialization of stocks and the implementation by the government of the sale of maize, sorghum and millet at subsidiezed prices, introduced in mid‑July, in order to support vulnerable households and contain further price increases. However, prices of coarse grains remained significantly higher on a year basis, supported by the high prices of fuel and below‑average market supplies. The low availability of cereals stemmed from the reduced the cereal output in 2021 and the reduced trade flows, underpinned by conflict‑related disruptions and increasing import costs associated with the war in Ukraine.
Acute food insecurity expected to increase due to unprecedented flooding
According to the March 2022 “Cadre Harmonisé (CH)” analysis, the aggregate number of people facing acute food insecurity (CH Phase 3 [Crisis] and above) between June and August 2022 was estimated at about 2.1 million, including 100 000 in CH Phase 4 (Emergency). This is the highest number on record and well above the 1.7 million people estimated to be severely acute food insecure during the same period in 2021. The increase in acute food insecurity levels reflects insecurity and conflicts, below‑average market supplies and high food prices.
Poor security conditions continued to cause massive population displacements. This conflict is severely affecting the livelihoods of households that highly rely on external food assistance to cover their basic food needs. According to the International Organization for Migration (IOM), as of August 2022, over 380 000 people were internally displaced due to insecurity, mostly in Lake Chad Province. In early September, IOM reported that another 1 165 people had been displaced in this province. In addition, the country hosts about 570 000 refugees from neighbouring countries, mostly from the Sudan, the Central African Republic, Cameroon and Nigeria, affected by persisting civil conflicts.
In spite of the upcoming cereal harvests, which are likely to improve food availability, food insecurity levels are expected to remain at high levels. Food availability and access is likely to remain limited by conflict‑related market disruptions and high food prices, exacerbated by the unfolding effects of the war on international trade and commodity prices. In addition, according to national authorities, unprecedented floods have affected, as of September 2022, about 622 000 people, mostly in the provinces of Logone Occidental, Mandoul and Sila, increasing the risk of a deterioration of food insecurity. Weather forecasts indicate that abundant rains are still expected until the end of October, increasing the likelihood of further flooding. New CH estimates of the number of people facing acute food insecurity in the last quarter of 2022 are expected to be released next November by the national Food Security and Early Warning Information System (SISAAP) and the Permanent Interstate Committee for Drought Control in the Sahel (CILSS).
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Source: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations